On August 28, Pakistani journalist Abid Hussain wrote in Al Jazeera Online about the missile programs of India and Pakistan in South Asia. In it, experts spoke about the real purpose of India’s new missile program.
India announced on August 20 that it had successfully tested a medium-range ballistic missile called Agni-5. It was launched from the test range on the Bay of Bengal coast of Odisha.
Agni is a Sanskrit word meaning ‘fire’. Agni-5 is 17.5 meters long and weighs 50,000 kg. This missile is capable of carrying more than 1,000 kg of nuclear weapons or conventional warheads. This missile can strike at a distance of more than 5,000 km. It can fly at a speed of about 30,000 kilometers per hour, which puts it among the world’s fastest ballistic missiles.
Pakistan announced the formation of a new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC) a week before the test of the Agni-5 missile.
According to experts, the initiative has been taken to fill the gaps in Pakistan’s defense system that were exposed during the four-day conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in May.
Experts say, however, despite this change in relations, India still sees China as its main threat. This shows how complicated the relationship between the world’s two most populous countries is. And China is actually the main target of India’s medium and long-range missile development.
However, experts say, India’s latest test actually carries a message not for Pakistan, but for another neighbor, China. After Trump’s tariff announcement, New Delhi is trying to cautiously warm relations with this country again.
The Agni-5’s range covers most of Asia, including northern China. It also includes parts of Europe. This is India’s 10th test since 2012 and its first since March last year.
According to analysts, the timing was very significant. The test was conducted at a time when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting China on Sunday to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.
After a long-standing border dispute, relations between the two countries are warming up somewhat. US President Donald Trump has doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent. Because India continues to buy oil from Russia.
Experts say, however, despite this change in relations, India still sees China as its main threat. This shows how complicated the relationship between the world’s two most populous countries is. And China is actually the main target of India’s medium and long-range missile development.
India’s missile advantage over Pakistan
India admitted that it lost some fighter jets in the conflict last May. However, they have caused major damage to Pakistan’s military bases. India has claimed that the adversary has suffered significant damage, especially in the attack of their supersonic Brahmos cruise missiles.
India’s missile advantage over Pakistan
Brahmos can hit up to 500 km and can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead of up to 300 kg. It is difficult to intercept it because it flies at a very low altitude and at high speed. As a result, India has claimed that this missile was able to easily enter Pakistan.
Many experts believe that in this context, it seems that there is no direct link between Pakistan’s ARFC announcement and the Agni-5 test. Rather, it was aimed at China.
Manpreet Sethi, a fellow at the New Delhi-based Center for Air Power Studies, told Al Jazeera that India’s need for long-range missiles has arisen because it sees China as a threat. But not intercontinental missiles. The Agni-5 is a 5,000-kilometer-range nuclear-capable missile, which is being developed as part of India’s deterrence against China. It has no connection with Pakistan.
India and China have been at loggerheads on the Himalayan border for four years after the deadly clash in Galwan in Ladakh in 2020. Later, relations began to thaw after Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Russia in October 2024.
Tomorrow, Sunday, Modi’s visit to China will be his first since 2018. In the past, India has repeatedly said that it has tried to repair relations with China, but Beijing has behaved aggressively on the border.
Manpreet Sethi, a fellow at the New Delhi-based Center for Air Power Studies, told Al Jazeera that seeing China as a threat has created a need for India’s long-range missiles. But not intercontinental missiles. The Agni-5 is a 5,000-kilometer-range nuclear-capable missile, which is being developed as part of India’s deterrence against China. It has nothing to do with Pakistan.
India wants to target both China and Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan wants to bring Israel and even the United States into its fold, in addition to India.
Ashley J. Tellis, Chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“While the Agni-5 could be used against Pakistan, its primary target is China. China’s eastern coastal cities—which are the most important economically and politically—are difficult for India to reach. So India needs a long-range missile,” said Christopher Cleary, assistant professor of political science at the University at Albany in the United States.
Missile Competition in South Asia
India and Pakistan have been expanding their missile arsenals for several years. Both countries are gradually developing long-range weapons.
Before the ARFC announcement, Pakistan had demonstrated the capabilities of the Fateh-4. This missile has a range of 750 kilometers and is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.
On the other hand, India is working on the Agni-6, which will have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers. It will have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) technologies. This capability has already been added to the Agni-5.
The MIRV missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads simultaneously, which are capable of hitting different targets. This greatly increases the destructive power of the weapon.
Missile Competition in South Asia
Mansur Ahmed, an honorary lecturer at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, said that India’s latest tests show that its intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities are increasing. By adding various capabilities to different versions of the Agni, India is showing that it is also moving towards submarine-launched nuclear missiles (SLBM) capabilities.
Mansur Ahmed also said, “How many can be deployed depends on the type of warheads being developed for India’s future submarines. However, it may be possible to deploy 200-300 warheads from their submarine fleet alone in the next decade.
India currently has two nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs) in service, with two more under construction.
Pakistan, on the other hand, does not yet have long-range missiles or nuclear submarines. Their longest-range missile is the Shaheen-3, which has a range of 2,750 km.
Mansoor Ahmed added that Pakistan’s Ababeel is South Asia’s first MIRV-capable ballistic missile, with a range of 2,200 km. However, it is the shortest-range MIRV system in the world.
Tughral Yameen, a former brigadier in the Pakistan Army and a nuclear policy researcher, said that Pakistan’s program is completely India-centric and defensive. But India’s ambitions are to project global power beyond the subcontinent. Their long-range system is actually aimed at China, so that they can establish themselves as a major power.
Tellis said that the West finds Pakistan’s capabilities vis-à-vis India worrisome. Because its nuclear program had an anti-Western tone in its early history. And after 9/11 and the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden, it has become particularly anti-American.
However, some experts believe that Pakistan’s program is targeting not only India, but also several other countries.
Ashley J. Tellis, chair of strategic affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), said that India wants to target both China and Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan wants to bring Israel and even the United States into its orbit in addition to India.
Tellis also said that the conventional missile forces of the two countries are designed to attack important targets so that fighter jets do not have to be put at risk.
US concerns about Pakistan’s ambitions, silent support for India
In December last year, the United States expressed deep concern about Pakistan’s missile program. A senior White House official said that if this continues, Pakistan will gain the ability to strike targets beyond South Asia and even the United States.
On the other hand, according to Tellis, Washington or its allies do not see India’s growing arsenal as destabilizing.
Tellis said that Pakistan’s capabilities vis-à-vis India are of concern to the West. Because its nuclear program had an anti-Western history from the beginning. And after 9/11 and the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden, it has become particularly anti-American.
Canberra-based academic Mansoor Ahmed said, “India’s long-range missile development is actually happening with the open support of Western powers. The United States and Europe want to see India as a security protector. The India-US civil nuclear agreement and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) exemption have given India the status of a de facto nuclear weapons state, even though India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The NPT is a Cold War-era treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and achieving the goals of disarmament. It recognizes only the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom as nuclear weapons states.
However, the NSG, an alliance of 48 countries that supply nuclear materials and technology, formed in 2008, made concessions to India. As a result, India is able to participate in the global nuclear trade without signing the NPT. This has greatly enhanced India’s international status.
Christopher Clary of the University of Albany said that the current Trump administration has not expressed any concerns about Pakistan’s program or India’s Agni-5 test.
Clary said that as long as Pakistan keeps its missile tests within the range of Shaheen-3 and Ababil, I think Western governments will not be overly concerned about missile development in South Asia. They have many other problems to worry about.
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